How accurate is it?

Short answer: the tax and benefit arithmetic has been checked carefully against an independent commercial planner. The plan itself is only as good as its assumptions, and some situations are not modelled at all. This page says which is which. It reflects testing up to September 2026.

What we checked

We built test households (singles and couples in Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta, with different savings, pensions and ages) and ran each one in Smart Withdrawal and in an independent commercial retirement planner. All test households are made up; no real person’s data was used.

The arithmetic. When we feed our engine the commercial planner’s own year-by-year withdrawals, our lifetime tax lands within 1% of its figure on 46 of 51 fully captured test plans. That covers federal and provincial income tax and credits, the OAS clawback, CPP and OAS deferral, RRIF minimums, pension income splitting, the survivor CPP benefit, GIS and the Allowance, and TFSA room.

The plans. Where a strategy follows a fixed rule (for example an RRSP meltdown), our plans match the commercial planner’s closely. Where Smart Withdrawal searches for the best order (Max Estate, Min Tax), it often finds a different plan from the commercial planner’s. Scored on that planner’s own arithmetic, our plan usually leaves more or pays less tax, but not always: in a few test cases its plan did better.

Where results can differ

• The five plans outside 1% involve the Ontario Health Premium for a GIS recipient, one couple’s estate, and couples receiving the Allowance.
• Plans that run out of money: the order accounts are drawn once savings run short is less certain.
• Couples after 72, once RRIF income is split, have been tested less than singles.

The assumptions behind every plan

• Investments grow at a steady yearly rate that you can change. Real markets go up and down; the stress test on the results page shows how a plan holds up in downturns like 2008.
• Tax rules are 2026’s, with brackets and benefits indexed to inflation. Future governments will change them.
• For couples, savings are one household pot. The plan does not split withdrawals between partners’ own accounts.
• Everyone lives to the age you choose. Planning to an older age is the cautious choice.

What it doesn’t model

• Quebec (QPP and Quebec tax) and provinces other than Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta.
• LIRAs and LIFs, FHSAs and other account types.
• Rental, business, dividend or interest income outside the accounts above.
• Partial OAS. The plan assumes full OAS, which needs 40 years in Canada after age 18.
• Debts, large one-time expenses, capital losses and the lifetime capital-gains exemption.

If any of these matter for you, treat the plan as a rough guide only.

What it is not

Smart Withdrawal is an educational estimate, not financial, tax or legal advice. Before acting on a plan, especially a large withdrawal or a CPP or OAS start date, check it with a licensed professional.

Found a mistake?

Tell us at hello@smartwithdrawal.ca. A share link to the plan (from “Copy share link” on the results page) helps us reproduce it; it carries only the numbers you entered.

See also the privacy page and the terms of use.